By Ciara Shannon
Reaching net zero by 2050 is “narrow but still achievable” because of the staggering growth in clean energy technologies, so says the IEA. IEA’s recent updated Net Zero Pathway calls for a tripling of global renewable power capacity (in particular, solar and offshore wind), a doubling of energy efficiency improvements, a steep rise in EV cars and heat pumps and large reductions of methane in the energy sector. Taken together, these measures could account for 80% of the emissions reductions by 2030.
Offshore wind – the spine of the UK and the world’s future electricity system
The UK is already home to one of the largest offshore wind sectors in the world (second only to China, followed by the USA and Sweden), providing about 14% of the UK’s electricity generation (or 12.7 GW). In the future, offshore wind is widely expected to become the spine of the electricity system and the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has suggested that by 2050 the UK may have between 65 and 125 GW of offshore wind capacity. Likewise, the National Grid ESO’s Future Energy Scenarios 2022 ‘Consumer Transformation’ scenario projects offshore wind increasing to 110 GW by 2050, providing 56% of total domestic generation.
In line with this, scientists at Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment recently estimated that solar and wind farms could “easily” power the UK by 2050 and suggest that 73% of the energy could come from offshore wind farms, with solar providing 19%. Professor Cameron Hepburn of Environmental Economics at the Smith School of Enterprise highlighted that while it’s likely that nuclear power and other renewables will have a part to play, their analysis finds that it’s entirely possible to power the UK on wind and solar alone.
Reduce the bottlenecks
The Government is aiming for 50 GW of offshore wind by 2030, including up to 5 GW of floating wind and this is expected to drive £155 billion of investment in the UK, supporting around 100,000 jobs. (Source: RenewableUK, February 2023).
But right now, challenges such as high inflation, rising interest rates, low auction prices and the excessive time it takes to gain planning permission and to secure a grid connection, are creating bottlenecks and putting this target and the government’s 2035 target to decarbonise the electricity system at risk. As a ball park, the development and deployment of offshore wind farms can take up 13 years, of this, around 3-5 years is needed for planning and consenting. (Source: Renewable UK, 2022)
Delays in grid connection is one of the greatest risks facing all new energy infrastructure especially renewable energy. Currently, more than 600 renewable energy projects are waiting in queues of up to 13 years to begin operation. These delays come at a cost. According to EnBW, for every year that the grid connection to their Morgan and Mona offshore projects (developed in partnership with bp) is delayed, a minimum additional £462m of DEVEX, in the form of option fees, will be incurred.
As noted by National Grid, more than five times [than has been built in the last 30 years] of transmission infrastructure will need to be installed to decarbonise the power system by 2035. This includes investing in sub-stations to connect offshore wind farms to the onshore network, as well as more pylons and electrical lines to move energy around the country.
Another solution, as set out by National Grid ESO, is the Holistic Network Design (HND) which is based around the connection of 23 GW of offshore wind being connected by the end of the decade, and includes projects that secured seabed leases through The Crown Estate’s Offshore Wind Leasing Round 4 and Crown Estate Scotland’s ScotWind Leasing Round. The HND would bypass onshore grid bottlenecks by coordinating wind farms to share transmission lines offshore, before they are connected to the grid. For example for the North West region, there could be an offshore connection between Scotland, Cumbria and Wales via a high voltage undersea direct current (HVDC) cable, with potential for other projects to connect in the future.
Calls for reforms to the UK government’s contract for difference (CfD) mechanism are also growing louder. Just recently, we saw the CfD auction round (AR5) fail to bring forward any new offshore wind projects. Up to 5GW of offshore wind was eligible to compete in the auction – but no offshore wind developers took part after many complained that the maximum price (£44 per megawatt hour (MWh)) was too low to account for cost increases – largely due to inflation and hikes in capital costs. Instead, new capacity was secured by onshore wind and solar and a small amount of tidal projects and, for the first time, geothermal.
Earlier this year, Sweden’s Vattenfall scrapped their plans for a giant offshore windfarm off the Norfolk coast because rising costs meant it was no longer profitable. The company bid a record low price of £37.35 a megawatt hour (MWh) for the electricity generated.
The future is local – Local Area Energy Plans
We agree with Chris Skidmore’s MP recent report that ‘The Future is Local’ and whoever forms the next government, greater devolution to help drive local net zero plans is needed. The report suggests a Local Net Zero Charter and the importance of Local Area Energy Plans across the UK. It also recommends developing a local Net Zero Delivery Framework to enable collaboration between UK Government and local and regional authorities, using the Local Net Zero Forums.
Make the most of Britain’s Energy Coast
Along Cumbria’s coastline there are eight offshore wind installations bringing major business, investment, and job opportunities along with it.
Offshore wind has been making an impact in Cumbria since 2006. Official data for offshore wind generation is defined by where the supply ‘lands’ – Robin Rigg (East and West)- is located midway between the Galloway and Cumbrian coasts in the Solway Firth in Scottish waters, but ‘lands’ in Seaton near Workington in Cumbria. This is in contrast to Walney 1, 2, 3, Ormonde, Barrow, and West of Duddon Sands wind farms, which, though an important part of Cumbria’s renewable supply, reach land in Lancashire.
Less well known is that as part of the consenting process for the Robin Rigg Wind Farm in the Solway Firth there is the Robin Rigg Community Fund, funded by RWE. Grants are available to community groups and organisations on both sides of the Solway area.
Table source: Green Investment Plan Cumbria (2021) (ch 4)
Barrow and Workington ports provide significant offshore Operations & Maintenance (O&M) with this set to expand with the new Mona, Morgan and Morecambe offshore wind proposals. According to the Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult, the UK offshore wind operations and maintenance market will grow faster in relative terms than any other offshore wind sub-sector market over the next decade.
Socio – economic reliance on the nuclear sector
Despite Cumbria’s significant offshore wind and maintenance contribution, West Cumbria’s socio-economic identity remains deeply tied and very reliant on the nuclear sector. In 2021, Sellafield and the Low Level Waste Repository (LLWR) generated £1.30 billion of GVA across the local economy, equivalent to 40% of the area’s total GVA. In total, Sellafield and LLWR supported 21,650 jobs, or 28% of total employment, including more than 11,000 jobs in the supply chain. (Source: The economic contribution of the NDA to the West Cumbria economy, April 2022).
There are also several plans, with investors ready and waiting, for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) to be deployed in West Cumbria. As well as plans for the Dean Moor Solar Farm and battery storage facility with enough renewable energy to power over 50,000 family homes every year. Plus, there’s an approved green hydrogen plant in Barrow that will supply hydrogen to Kimberly-Clark from 2025 and the MNZ (Morecambe Net Zero) Cluster has taken further steps forward to convert the North and South Morecambe gas fields for carbon capture and storage.
Project Collette – shared prosperity for all
Cumbria could be making much more of its windy coast and we hope innovative projects such as Project Collette which aims to be a 1.2 GW (with 80-100 turbines) community owned wind farm off the coast of West Cumbria, will be taken seriously and embraced by the local community. If successful, Project Collette would be England’s first community owned offshore wind farm, and it would be Cumbria’s first offshore wind farm with its supply also ‘landing’ in Cumbria. Collette’s renewable energy would be used to decarbonise the local area, support green hydrogen projects at Carlisle, Workington, and Whitehaven and green steel opportunities in Workington (or its surrounds).
Click here to read about Project Collette in more detail. If successful, all of these plans could lead to Cumbria becoming a strategically important center of clean energy generation, and a significant contributor towards the UK’s net-zero ambition.